It is refreshing to read that Gary Gensler, new chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), says the CFTC needs to regulate speculative trading in oil and natural gas futures more strictly.  As a reminder, the CFTC foolishly began granting exemptions from the speculative trades limits in 1991, and speculative trading in oil futures orchestrated by some of the large investment houses led to the dramatic increase in gas prices more than a year ago … and gas prices again are on their way up.

By the way, look for a new report from the CFTC this month that REVERSES a finding that the gas price hikes were caused by supply and demand issues, not speculators.

Chairman Gensler’s telephone number is 202.418.5050, and his fax number is 202.418.5533 if you want to weigh in on this important issue.

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I wonder if I and others have been watching too many episodes of Battlestar Galactica and sci-fi channel re-runs of 2001: A Space Odyssey?

The New York Times reported last week that our machines are becoming smarter than we, and scientists are debating whether there should be limits on research that might lead to loss of human control over computer-based systems.  A threat?  Not for a while, I would hope.

The New York Times also reported last week that traders like Goldman Sachs – the bad guys in case you don’t know about the internet bubble, housing bubble and oil bubble – are beginning to make a lot of money by subtly manipulating share prices with high-speed, high-frequency trading.  The issue came to light when a former Goldman Sachs computer programmer left with secret computer codes, which a federal prosecutor now claims could be used to “manipulate markets in unfair ways.”  Hhhmmm?!?  If the programmer could use them to manipulate markets in unfair ways, how was Goldman Sachs using them?  A threat?  Yes, and now.

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Matt Taibbi, Journalist: This is the world we live in now. And in this world, some of us have to play by the rules, while others get a note from the principal excusing them from homework till the end of time, plus 10 billion free dollars in a paper bag to buy lunch. It’s a gangster state, running on gangster economics, and even prices can’t be trusted anymore; there are hidden taxes in every buck you pay. And maybe we can’t stop it, but we should at least know where it’s all going.

We must pay closer attention to our financial services industry or else we will find ourselves in economic crisis after economic crisis.  I know: The terms are difficult to understand … collateralized debt obligations, commodity futures, initial public offerings, junk bonds … but we must begin to grapple with them.

Franklin D. Roosevelt, Fireside Chat 6: “The second step we have taken in the restoration of normal business enterprise has been to clean up thoroughly unwholesome conditions in the field of investment. In this we have had assistance from many bankers and businessmen, most of whom recognize the past evils in the banking system, in the sale of securities, in the deliberate encouragement of stock gambling, in the sale of unsound mortgages and in many other ways in which the public lost billions of dollars. They saw that without changes in the policies and methods of investment there could be no recovery of public confidence in the security of savings. The country now enjoys the safety of bank savings under the new banking laws, the careful checking of new securities under the Securities Act and the curtailment of rank stock speculation through the Securities Exchange Act. I sincerely hope that as a result people will be discouraged in unhappy efforts to get rich quick by speculating in securities. The average person almost always loses.”

There is nothing new under the sun.  Our banking and securities laws and regulations desperately need an overhaul, just as they needed one in the 1934. But we must be very careful in doing so because there are some very smart financial services people out there who face the loss of significant income, aim to sabotage every meaningful regulatory effort and who will take advantage of any loophole left open for them.

Edward Liddy, AIG chairman: “We cannot attract and retain the best and the brightest talent to lead and staff the AIG businesses — which are now being operated principally on behalf of American taxpayers — if employees believe their compensation is subject to continued and arbitrary adjustment by the U.S. Treasury.”

Do we really want our best and brightest going into the financial services field?  I think not.  We all need to support strongly all efforts to reign in their salaries.  Wouldn’t it be wonderful if our best and brightest chose education, public service (e.g., financial services regulation) or something remotely beneficial to society as careers?  While I appreciate the need for a financial services sector to ensure that capital is available to support economic growth, that’s not what far too many of these people are doing.  These people are destroyers, not builders.

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Of foxes and henhouses

Regardless of who is in the White House, former Goldman Sachs employees seem to surround them.

For President Bill Clinton, it was Robert Rubin, Treasury Secretary, who had spent 26 years working at Goldman Sachs.  For the record, Robert Rubin is the person who stopped the CFTC from regulating derivatives in the late 1990s, which might have prevented the housing bubble.

For President George W. Bush, it was Henry Paulson, Treasury Secretary and financial bailout architect, who formerly was Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs, and Josh Bolten, the President’s Chief of Staff, who formerly was director of legal affairs for the company in London.  For the record, Mr. Paulson is the person who decided to let Goldman Sach’s competitor Lehman Brothers go out of business while bailing out AIG with $85 billion, $13 billion of which went directly to Goldman Sachs.

How about President Barack Obama, who received over $1 million in campaign contributions from Goldman Sachs employees?  To date, his biggest Goldman Sachs hire is Robert Hormats, the State Department’s Undersecretary for Economic, Energy and Agricultural Affairs.  A close second is Mark Patterson, former Goldman lobbyist turned Chief of Staff for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who worked against executive compensation caps before going to work for Mr. Geithner.

For those who think meaningful health care reform will be difficult, try meaningful financial services reform.  The foxes are guarding the henhouse.

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The oil bubble

Goldman did it by persuading pension funds and other large institutional investors to invest in oil futures — agreeing to buy oil at a certain price on a fixed date. The push transformed oil from a physical commodity, rigidly subject to supply and demand, into something to bet on, like a stock.

- Matt Taibbi

How was this bubble created?  Remember the four elements:

  • An Intangible Market.  Goldman Sachs peddled oil futures, not oil in the here and now.
  • A Broken Rule.  In 1936, the CFTC was given authority to regulate speculative trades in commodities.  In 1991 a Goldman-owned subsidiary was given an exemption from the speculative trades limit, and 14 other companies eventually obtained similar exemptions.
  • An Insider.  While Goldman’s “oracle of oil” was predicting a “super spike” in oil prices in the future …
  • A Hedge.  … Goldman was heavily invested in oil and profiting from the rapid increase in price in the here and now.
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